Democrats Have Good Odds To Win Majority In House But Not Senate

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Democrats are hungry to win some elections following their disastrous showing in 2016. The party was so confident that it would win the Presidency in 2016 and were deeply saddened to find out that they did not. That is why they are eager to get back on their feet.

The House Of Representatives

A big bright spot for Democrats is in the House of Representatives. Currently modeling done by political statistics website FiveThirtyEight.com points to a strong likelihood that Democrats take the majority in the House. Current estimates have Democrats as nearly an eighty-five percent favorite to win the House majority as of the time of this writing.

A lot of marginal districts throughout the country are polling pretty well for Democrats. The donations that Democratic candidates have been receiving in terms of small dollar contributions are also encouraging for the left wing party. Couple this with the fact that the Republicans have to defend many more seats than do Democrats and the fact that the opposition party of the President tends to do better in mid-term elections, and you have a situation where Democrats stand a real chance of picking up a lot of seats.

The Senate

There is a somewhat different story brewing in the Senate. The upper Chamber has a slant to it that is very much working against Democrats at this particular moment in time. The number of seats that Democrats have to defend this year is incredibly high compared to Republicans.

Democrats are trying to defend twenty-five seats that they currently hold while Republicans only have to defend ten this cycle. Many of the Democratic seats are in states that President Trump won by a significant margin such as North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri. As such, it is expected that Democrats may lose seats in the Senate where they are already the minority.

On the plus side for Democrats, there are four Republican-held seats where Democrats seem to at least be in play. Those are Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, and Texas. If Democrats can make gains there and hold on to their own seats then the Senate may be competitive.

Overall you would rather be Democrats than Republicans this election cycle, but don’t not everything is going the Democrat’s way. There are definitely some spots of vulnerability. It is worth keeping both of these things in mind at the same time to understand the full context of this election.

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